Rising seniors should leave June with a working college list. Not a final one — a working one, with eight to twelve names on it and a reason beside each. Here’s the method.
Start from the student, not the list
Three questions before any college gets written down:
- What does the student want to study, or at least be near? “Undecided” is fine; “undecided between biology and business” is more useful, because those live in different parts of a university.
- Where would they do well? Big lecture halls or small seminars. A campus in a city or one with a quad. Two hours from home or two time zones. These aren’t preferences to apologize for — they predict whether the student stays and graduates.
- What can the family spend per year, in dollars, without borrowing more than a federal student loan? Say the number out loud. Every college on the list has to clear it, or have a realistic path to clearing it.
The four columns
For each college:
Fit. Does it have the program, at the size and in the place the student described? If the honest answer is “sort of,” it’s a weak entry.
Admit odds, honestly. Compare the student’s GPA and test scores to the college’s published middle 50% for last year’s admitted class. Then categorize: likely (student is above the range), target (in the range), reach (below, or any college admitting under 20%). A sound list has at least two likelies the student would be happy at, four or five targets, and a few reaches. If the student can’t name a likely they’d attend, the list isn’t done.
Net price. Run the college’s net price calculator with last year’s tax numbers. Thirty minutes per college; it’s the most valuable half-hour in this whole process. Write the result in the column.
Outcomes. Four-year graduation rate, and what graduates in the intended major actually earn and do. The federal College Scorecard has both by program. A college with a lovely campus and a 48% four-year graduation rate is a five-year college for many students, and the fifth year is full price.
The Pennsylvania check
For families here, the list should usually include at least one in-state public option with the program — Penn State’s campuses, Pitt, Temple, West Chester and the other state system schools — priced with the in-state rate and any PHEAA grant. Not because it has to be the choice, but because it anchors the net-price column with a real number.
What the list is for
A good list lets the family say, in the spring, “every school on here was one we’d be glad about.” That’s the goal. Rankings can’t get you there. Four columns can.
By Jeff Thompson, Phortex Campus · June 10, 2025 · ← All posts